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Creators/Authors contains: "Jenkins, Matthew"

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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available December 1, 2025
  2. Abstract The dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that link retreating sea ice to increased Arctic cloud amount and cloud water content are unclear. Using the fifth generation of the ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5), the long-term changes between years 1950–79 and 1990–2019 in Arctic clouds are estimated along with their relationship to sea ice loss. A comparison of ERA5 to CERES satellite cloud fractions reveals that ERA5 simulates the seasonal cycle, variations, and changes of cloud fraction well over water surfaces during 2001–20. This suggests that ERA5 may reliably represent the cloud response to sea ice loss because melting sea ice exposes more water surfaces in the Arctic. Increases in ERA5 Arctic cloud fraction and water content are largest during October–March from ∼950 to 700 hPa over areas with significant (≥15%) sea ice loss. Further, regions with significant sea ice loss experience higher convective available potential energy (∼2–2.75 J kg−1), planetary boundary layer height (∼120–200 m), and near-surface specific humidity (∼0.25–0.40 g kg−1) and a greater reduction of the lower-tropospheric temperature inversion (∼3°–4°C) than regions with small (<15%) sea ice loss in autumn and winter. Areas with significant sea ice loss also show strengthened upward motion between 1000 and 700 hPa, enhanced horizontal convergence (divergence) of air, and decreased (increased) relative humidity from 1000 to 950 hPa (950–700 hPa) during the cold season. Analyses of moisture divergence, evaporation minus precipitation, and meridional moisture flux fields suggest that increased local surface water fluxes, rather than atmospheric motions, provide a key source of moisture for increased Arctic clouds over newly exposed water surfaces during October–March. Significance StatementSea ice loss has been shown to be a primary contributor to Arctic warming. Despite the evidence linking large sea ice retreat to Arctic warming, some studies have suggested that enhanced downwelling longwave radiation associated with increased clouds and water vapor is the primary reason for Arctic amplification. However, it is unclear how sea ice loss is linked to changes in clouds and water vapor in the Arctic. Here, we investigate the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds using the ERA5 dataset. Improved knowledge of the relationship between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in clouds will help further our understanding of the role of the cloud feedback in Arctic warming. 
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  3. Abstract Radiative climate feedbacks in the Arctic have been extensively studied, but their spatial and seasonal variations have not been thoroughly examined. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we examine seasonal variations in Arctic climate feedbacks and their relationship to sea‐ice loss based on changes from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019. The spring and summer seasons experienced large sea‐ice loss, strong surface albedo feedback, and large oceanic heat uptake. Arctic clouds exerted small net cooling in May‐June‐July but moderate warming during the cold season, especially over areas with large sea‐ice loss where cloud liquid and ice water content increased. Arctic water vapor feedback peaked in summer but was weak and uncorrelated with sea‐ice loss. Arctic positive lapse rate feedback (LRF) was strongest in winter over areas with large sea‐ice loss and weak inversion but uncorrelated with atmospheric stability, suggesting that oceanic heating from sea‐ice loss led to enhanced surface warming and the positive LRF. 
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  4. Abstract Sea‐ice loss and radiative feedbacks have been proposed to explain Arctic amplification (AA)—the enhanced Arctic warming under increased greenhouse gases, but their relationship is unclear. By analyzing coupled CESM1 simulations with 1%/year CO2increases, we show that without large sea‐ice loss and AA, the lapse rate, Planck, and surface albedo feedbacks are greatly reduced, while the positive water vapor feedback changes little. The positive Arctic lapse rate feedback, which results from enhanced surface warming rather than the high stability of Arctic air, and changes in atmospheric energy transport across the Arctic Circle are a result, not a cause, of AA; while the water vapor feedback also plays a minor role. Instead, AA results from enhanced winter oceanic heating associated with sea‐ice loss that is aided by a positive surface albedo feedback in summer and positive cloud feedback in winter. 
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